Verkiezingen voorspellen met De Blogoloog (bis)

Statistieken zijn altijd interessant, en daarom gingen we van 119 politici na hoe vaak hun naam voorkwam in de blog- en twitterberichten die de afgelopen drie maanden door De Blogoloog (de eerste Vlaamse blogzoekmachine) werden geïndexeerd.

Het namenlijstje was gebaseerd op de dertig van het experiment van gisteren, plus iedere politicus die we op de site van de Obarometer konden vinden (zij die een blog, Facebook- of Twitteraccount hebben dus).

Weergegeven in een staafdiagram geeft dat volgende resultaten:

 

(Klik hier voor de grote versie)

Dat ziet er dus verdacht veel uit als een long-tail-achtige curve: over een kleine groep politici wordt erg vaak geblogd, en over een grote groep wordt minder geschreven (of helemaal niet).  De curve loopt ook redelijk gelijkmatig, enkel de nummers één en twee vormen sterke uitschieters.  Dit zijn respectievelijk Jean-Marie Dedecker en Kris Peeters.

Wil dit zeggen dat zij de meeste stemmen gaan halen?  Geen idee.  Deze cijfers zeggen enkel iets over hoe vaak een bepaalde naam genoemd werd, en zelfs niet of dit in een positieve of negatieve context was.  Het geeft natuurlijk wel een goede indicatie van wie de geesten beheerst.  Bloggers gaan (vermoedelijk) niet voor of tegen iemand bloggen die totaal onbekend is en waarvan zij denken dat de uitslag toch geen rol zal spelen.

Voor de politici in de top tien hebben we ook eens gekeken naar het aantal blogberichten met hun naam er in per dag.  Uiteraard kan dit sterk fluctueren, daarom namen we ook het gemiddelde over veertien dagen mee in de grafieken.  Dit geeft een idee van wanneer er precies over iemand geblogd werd of wordt, en of de trend stijgt of daalt.

1) Jean-Marie Dedecker

2) Kris Peeters

3) Filip Dewinter

4) Herman Van Rompuy

5) Yves Leterme

6) Karel De Gucht

7) Guy Verhofstadt
 

8) Frank Vandenbroucke

9) Bert Anciaux

10) Bart Somers

Tot slot geven we ook nog even het volledige lijstje mee:

Jean-Marie Dedecker	209
Kris Peeters	189
Filip Dewinter	113
Herman Van Rompuy	112
Yves Leterme	110
Karel De Gucht	109
Guy Verhofstadt	105
Frank Vandenbroucke	100
Bert Anciaux	91
Bart Somers	84
Caroline Gennez	78
Kathleen Van Brempt	76
Dirk Van Mechelen	72
Jean-Jacques De Gucht	69
Guido De Padt	62
Patrick Janssens	60
Hilde Crevits	55
Vincent Van Quickenborne	53
Bart Staes	52
Jean-Luc Dehaene	51
Geert Lambert	50
Mieke Vogels	46
Jo Vandeurzen	43
Jurgen Verstrepen	40
Marie-Rose Morel	38
Bart Tommelein	34
Bart Tommelein	34
Frank Vanhecke	34
Marino Keulen	34
Patricia Ceysens	34
Patrick Dewael	32
Steven Vanackere	32
Annemie Turtelboom	30
Bart Martens	30
Geert Bourgeois	30
Veerle Heeren	28
Freya Van den Bossche	27
Freya Van Den Bossche	27
Anne De Baetzelier	22
Peter Dedecker	22
Derk Jan Eppink	20
Inge Vervotte	19
Ivo Belet	19
Bruno Valkeniers	18
Marianne Thyssen	17
Annemie Neyts	16
Bart Caron	13
Boudewijn Bouckaert	13
Eric Van Rompuy	13
Fientje Moerman	13
Sam Van de Putte	13
Annick De Ridder	12
Karin Temmerman	12
Sven Gatz	12
Bart Dewever	10
Hermes Sanctorum	10
Liesbet Van Eeckhaut	10
Tanguy Veys	10
Vera Dua	10
Hendrik Bogaert	9
Tom Dehaene	9
Carl Decaluwé	9
Frank Wauters	8
Johan Vande Lanotte	8
Marleen Vanderpoorten	8
Wouter De Vriendt	8
Mark Demesmaeker	7
Peter Van Rompuy	7
Philippe De Coene	7
Tinne Van der Straeten	7
Saïd El Khadraoui	7
Barbara Bonte	6
Els Van Weert	6
Peter Reekmans	6
Theo Francken	6
Chokri Mahassine	5
Erik Torbeyns	5
Freija Dhondt	5
Freya Piryns	5
John Crombez	5
Bram Boriau	4
Bruno Tuybens	4
Dirk Sterckx	4
Jan Roegiers	4
Joris Rombaut	4
Philippe Bossin	4
Wouter Van Bellingen	4
Yamila Idrissi	4
Adelheid Byttebier	3
Davine Dujardin	3
Elke Tindemans	3
Gino De Craemer	3
Hans Verreyt	3
Joke Van de Putte	3
Mohamed Ridouani	3
Patricia Ceyssens	3
Rudi De Kerpel	3
Tie Roefs	3
Walter Kestens	3
Michèle Hostekint	3
Alexander De Croo	2
Inge Jooris	2
Minneke De Ridder	2
Bert De Brabandere	1
Dirk Vansintjan	1
Irina De Knop	1
Joke Renneboog	1
Karin Devis	1
Maya Detiège	1
Annick Willemans	0
Bruno Lapauw	0
Guido Staes	0
Jan Haegeman	0
Jan Pszeniczko	0
Maarten Vergauwen	0
Mathias De Clerq	0
Nancy Verbrugghe	0
Thomas Leys	0
Maarten Motté	0

Ideeën?  Suggesties?  Vond je deze gegevens interessant?  Laat iets weten in de reacties hieronder.  Interesse om de volledige dataset te zien waarop deze gegevens gebaseerd zijn?  Mail me!

Noot: alle gegevens slaan terug op de plusminus 20.000 blogs en Twitteraccounts die momenteel door De Blogoloog worden geïndexeerd.  Uiteraard zijn er blogs die niet in die index zitten, maar hoeveel dat er precies zijn is niet vast te stellen.  Om deze reden is het niet mogelijk zinnige uitspraken te doen die er van uitgaan dat deze gegevens een steekproef vormen, omdat de grootte van de totale populatie onbekend is.

De gegevens in dit artikel zijn absoluut: op deze 20.000+ blogs is er precies zoveel keer over die naam geblogd en precies zoveel keer over die.  Iets anders zeggen deze cijfers niet.  Dat is ook de reden waarom er geen foutmarge vermeld wordt.  Vanuit deze 20.000 blogs extrapoleren naar 'alle' blogs of naar de uitslag van de verkiezingen gebeurt dus op eigen risico!

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